Illuminating Conversations....

..over at ITM's comments, as usual. This blog has single handedly done more to explain to the English speaking world what's going on in the Middle East than any other I can think of, including even the great Sandmonkey, who apparently is campaigning in the upcoming US elections. LOL!!!

At ITM, Omar is speculating on the prospect of war between Israel and Iran. In the comments is this great analysis of what could happen, should a full scale war break out. Sounds plausible to me.

From thewiz:

"It does seem likely that an attack on Iran is coming. One of Bush's favorite sayings is "We're not here to just kick the can down the road." Translation; former administrations did just enough to avoid the tough decisions, thus "kicking" those tough decisions to the next admin.

And there have been some indications that preperations are under way. First was the crackdown on the Shia militias in Iraq. One of Iran's biggest sticks was said militias doing major damage to US forces in Iraq as a retaliation. Now that option is pretty much gone.

Another indication is our supplying Israel with more and better anti-missles systems, advanced radars, bunker-busting bombs, and weaponry.

The attack last year on the Syrian nuke site was a good test of the latest and bestest Russian system that had just been installed in Syria. Seems the Russian system failed the test royally as the bombs went off before anyone on the ground had a clue that Isreali jets had even crossed into Syrian airspace.

Now Iran thinks its best defense is to widen the war. Since the Shia forces in Iraq have been pretty much neutralized, the obvious counterattack would be a full assault on Israel by Hezbullah and Hammas forces within Lebanon and Gaza. Perhaps they should rethink that one. Both sides can widen the war if it plays to their advantage.

The supply lines for both terror groups runs straight through Syria. All the leadership is in Damascuss. As soon as major hostilaty breaks out, Israel should feign a full out assault into Lebanon then quickly make a hard right turn into Syria and make a beeline to Damascuss. This would cut off 90% of their supplies, leadership, training bases, financing, weaponry, and amunition. Perhaps most importantly, it would be another major embarassment to the extremists.

This would leave Iran surrounded by three sides, Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. It would deal a tremendous blow to the Hez and Hammas. By removing a safe haven and transit point for the insurgent forces into Iraq, it would help pacify Iraq.

And who knows what intel would be gathered when we capture the many terror headquarters in Damascuss? We would find out all the ties to groups in Europe and the US, in Peru, Colombia, Argentina, the Philipines, and more. Not to mention N Korea, and the Russians. Maybe even within the UN itself. This would seriously damage the funding raising, recruiting, organizatioal abilities, propaganda and moral.



Widen the War ??? I say to Iran, be careful what you ask for . . . . .




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thewiz | 07.03.08 - 10:20 pm |"

I've been wondering lately why France's Sarkozy has been making so much noise about Iran's nuclear ambitions and saying that Iran must not be allowed to build a nuclear bomb. Sarkozy has been making some important diplomatic excursions of late, as well, including one to Israel. France has historical ties to Lebanon and Syria. Lots of French speakers in those two countries. At least there used to be, many years ago when I was in Lebanon. Yup. France is back and engaged, except this time they are not propping up despots with whom they have lucrative oil contracts.