Obama's Iraq Withdrawal Plan

Well, it's not much different than the one negotiated by the Bush Administration. Sixteen months earlier. That's all. But then neither plan could withstand the test of yet another demonstration of Iraq's democracy.

"Forgotten in the rounds of self-congratulation following President Barack Obama’s presentation of his timetable for withdrawal from Iraq that was delivered last Friday was that the United States is already committed to a different timetable on which the Iraqi people will have the final say. The Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), signed during November 2008 between America and Iraq, was only ratified by the Iraqi parliament after a clause allowing for a national referendum on the document was included."

[---]

"In case it fails to pass the popular referendum, then the agreement expires within one year according to the mechanism laid out in Article 30, making it next to impossible to negotiate a new agreement giving the Americans an extension. This effectively means that a rejection of SOFA would set an earlier deadline for a full troop withdrawal by the summer of 2010 involving all U.S. and coalition troops, not just combat divisions, which means that Obama’s plan for keeping a residual force of 30,000-50,000 U.S. soldiers in Iraq until the end of 2011, a trajectory already envisioned by SOFA, will fly out the window too."

[---]

"U.S. interests in the Middle East will not be served by this exit but it is too late for recriminations now. American eagerness at leaving without securing a long-term strategic partnership with Iraq is thus mirrored by an Iraqi eagerness to see the Americans leave sooner rather than later. It is akin to a relationship involving a commitment-phobic person whose significant other has decided to move on.

Consequently, Obama can give speeches to his heart’s desire but he’s not in charge of this particular policy, a policy agreed to by his predecessor in office and now wholly up to the Iraqi voter to decide on."